27 Jan - 1 Feb 2025 : The Hindu Editorial Weekly Analysis

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1. An enduring commitment to the Indo-Pacific

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 4)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations

Context

• Donald Trump’s return as U. S. President underscores a renewed emphasis on the Indo-Pacific region, enhancing Quad alliances to counteract China’s influence.

Trump as U.S. President and Its Geopolitical Significance

• Donald Trump’s reinstatement as the 47th President of the United States marks a significant political resurgence.
• His inauguration underscores the Indo-Pacific's importance, with foreign ministers from India, Japan, and Australia in attendance.
• This indicates a strong emphasis on the Quad partnership, focusing on defense, economic, and technological collaboration for regional stability.

Significance of the Indo-Pacific in Trump’s First Term

Adoption of the Term ‘Indo-Pacific’

• Trump’s first term popularized the term ‘Indo-Pacific’, replacing ‘Asia-Pacific’ to expand the region’s geopolitical framework.
• This term highlighted the need to secure sea lines of communication, tackle maritime challenges, and counter China’s rising influence.
• The strategy incorporated defense, security, and economic aspects, underscoring the Indian Ocean's strategic role.

Revival of the Quad

• Trump’s administration revitalized the Quad as a strategic entity, advancing dialogue to the ministerial level.
• The emphasis was on maritime security, resilient supply chains, and technological collaboration, accentuating shared regional concerns.

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)

• The Quad is a strategic alliance involving Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.
• Focus: Advocating for a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region.
• Key cooperation areas: Maritime security, infrastructure development, counter-terrorism, and humanitarian assistance.
• Significance: Balancing China's growing influence in the region and promoting a rules-based international order.
• Regular summits and meetings: Convened to address regional challenges and bolster cooperation.
• Initiatives: Quad Vaccine Partnership, supply chain resilience initiatives, and infrastructure development projects.

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Continuity Under Biden’s Presidency

• The Biden administration preserved the Indo-Pacific’s strategic relevance, building upon the Trump-era framework.
• Biden hosted the first Quad leaders’ summit in 2021, expanding the agenda to encompass vaccines, climate change, and infrastructure development.
• In 2022, Biden launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to enhance economic collaboration alongside security concerns.

Prospects in Trump’s Second Term

Strengthened U.S. Focus on the Indo-Pacific

• The Trump administration intends to intensify hard power dynamics while addressing emerging regional challenges.
• Bilateral and multilateral engagements, including the Quad leaders’ summit, will emphasize maritime, economic, and technological security.
• The focus will persist on upholding the rules-based system and strengthening partnerships with ‘like-minded’ countries.

Conclusion

• Trump’s second term is anticipated to sustain the Indo-Pacific's significance in U. S. foreign policy.
• The administration seeks to fortify security and economic frameworks to ensure regional stability and counter China’s expanding influence.
• Collaboration with Quad partners will be crucial in advancing shared strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific.

PYQ: ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)’ is transforming itself into a trade bloc from a military alliance, in present times – Discuss. (250 words/15m) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-2 2020)

Practice Question: Examine the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region in global geopolitics and evaluate the role of the Quad in upholding regional stability. (250 Words /15 marks)

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2. The Union Budget as a turning point for climate action

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)

Topic: GS3 – Indian Economy, GS3 – Environment

Context

• The FY26 Union Budget needs to tackle India’s climate objectives by emphasizing renewable energy, decarbonization, circular economy, green finance, and measures for climate resilience.

Focus on Climate Action Amidst Urgent Challenges

• With just five years remaining to achieve India’s interim Net-Zero targets, the Budget must prioritize climate change policies.
• Extreme weather events and international climate obligations demand immediate and decisive action to safeguard vulnerable populations.

Past Achievements in Climate Initiatives

• The government has launched significant programs, including the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijlee Yojana, supports for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and funding for offshore wind energy initiatives.
• The National Green Hydrogen Mission has seen an increase in funding. Currently, India’s renewable energy capacity is at 203.
• 18 GW, significantly below the 2030 target of 500 GW, necessitating substantial acceleration.

Key Priorities for the FY26 Budget

Strengthening the Green Energy Transition

• Review of PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijlee Yojana
• Despite 1. 45 crore registrations, only 6. 34 lakh installations (4. 37%) have been completed, highlighting considerable implementation gaps.
• Increased fiscal support should focus on the Renewable Energy Service Company (RESCO) model to enhance solar energy accessibility for low-income households.
• Expanding Solar Manufacturing
• Domestic production fulfills only 40% of solar panel demand, with local panels priced 65% higher than imports.
• The Budget should expand production-linked incentives (PLI) for the solar module supply chain to bridge this gap.
• Renewable Energy Potential in Railways
• Indian Railways’ land and corridors could accommodate up to 5 GW of solar and wind energy.
• Public-private partnerships should be promoted to capitalize on this opportunity.

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Addressing the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

• The EU’s CBAM, effective January 2026, will impose carbon taxes ranging from 20% to 50% on $8. 22 billion worth of Indian exports annually.
• MSMEs, which contribute 30% to GDP and 45% to exports, face significant risks. A dedicated ‘Climate Action Fund,’ akin to Japan’s Green Transformation Fund, could aid in decarbonizing vulnerable export sectors and enhancing MSME capacity for CBAM compliance.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

• The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be implemented on January 1, 2026.
• It is designed to prevent carbon leakage by imposing carbon taxes on imported goods with high carbon footprints.
• CBAM applies to sectors like iron, steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen.Carbon levies are expected to range from 20% to 50% of product value.
• It poses a significant challenge for India’s MSME sector, which contributes 30% to GDP and 45% to exports.
• The mechanism aims to align global trade with climate goals, incentivizing exporters to adopt greener production methods.

Promoting a Circular Economy

• A circular economy could decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 44% and generate ₹40 lakh crore annually by 2050. The Budget should incentivize recycling and refurbishment through:
• A 150% weighted deduction on investments in recycling infrastructure.
• Accelerated depreciation benefits for circular economy assets.
• Establishing a sovereign green bond framework to finance circular economy projects is crucial.

Enhancing Climate Resilience Through Insurance

India’s insurance penetration fell from 4% in FY23 to 3. 7% in FY24.

• Tax deductions for insurance companies that provide climate-linked policies and reduced GST rates for such premiums can enhance resilience.

Advancing Green Finance

• Standardized definitions in green finance can help secure a portion of the ₹162. 5 trillion required for India’s climate objectives by 2030.
• Allocations should prioritize the development of a climate finance taxonomy, verification systems, and capacity building for financial institutions.
• Differential tax treatment for green investments can further accelerate advancement.

Conclusion

• Climate policies are essential for sustaining trade and investment competitiveness.
• Incorporating climate action into fiscal planning is crucial for achieving global sustainability standards and seizing market opportunities.

PYQ: Clean energy is the order of the day. Describe briefly India’s changing policy towards climate change in various international fora in the context of geopolitics.(250 Words /15 marks) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-2 2022)

Practice Question:  How can the Union Budget FY26 enhance India’s response to climate change through renewable energy, support for MSMEs, and circular economy initiatives? (250 Words / 15 marks)

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3. The Budget pipeline and India’s foreign policy ambitions

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations

Context

• The budget for the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is essential for advancing India’s foreign policy and global objectives, yet it remains inadequately funded. There is a pressing need for increased allocations to enhance diplomacy, regional cooperation, and institutional capabilities.

Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Budget and Its Importance

• The MEA budget is vital for formulating India’s foreign policy and global goals. Despite a notable 23% increase for 2023-24, the MEA is still one of the least-funded ministries, receiving merely 0. 4% of India's total budget.
• The Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs has suggested raising this allocation to 1%, but even a gradual increase to 0. 6% or 0. 8% would demonstrate a commitment to enhancing the MEA's role.

India’s Global Aspirations and the Need for a Stronger MEA

• India's ambition to become a developed nation (Viksit Bharat) by 2047 relies on robust global partnerships.
• The country is asserting itself as a leader of the Global South and deepening relations with ASEAN, the Quad (India, Australia, Japan, U. S. ), and global organizations like the International Solar Alliance.
• Partner nations expect India to fulfill commitments on infrastructure projects, financial assistance, and diplomatic obligations, all necessitating a well-funded and effective MEA.

 Key Areas Requiring Increased FundingEconomic and Regional Cooperation

• India's regional connectivity is challenged by political shifts in Bangladesh, instability in Myanmar, strained relationships with Nepal, and the Maldives’ "India Out" initiative.
• Nonetheless, engagements with Sri Lanka and Bhutan have fortified cross-border initiatives. Increased financial resources are essential to counter China's growing influence in South Asia.

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Strengthening Institutional Capacity

• The Indian Foreign Service (IFS) currently faces understaffing, which undermines diplomatic effectiveness.
• Coordination issues, slow growth, and restricted lateral hiring impede India’s global engagement. While the training budget for diplomats has seen a 30% increase, overall capacity-building initiatives remain inadequate.

Foreign Aid Trends and Strategic Shifts

• India's foreign aid has decreased by 10% in 2024-25, contrasting with a 29% increase in loans to other governments.
• Nearly half of India’s grants are allocated to neighboring countries. Notable shifts in aid distribution include:
• Key changes in aid distribution:
• Bhutan is the top aid recipient, underscoring strong ties and collaboration in energy and hydropower.
• Aid to Bangladesh has decreased from ₹200 crore in 2023-24 to ₹120 crore in 2024-25.
• Aid to Sri Lanka has increased by 63%, indicating enhanced bilateral cooperation.
• India is transitioning from direct grants to Lines of Credit (LoCs), with 45% of these funds targeted at neighboring countries.
• Bangladesh stands as the largest LoC recipient, receiving $7. 86 billion for infrastructure development.

Challenges in Research and Policy Support

• India has invested heavily in global dialogues and conferences but needs to fund evidence-based research in universities and think tanks.
• Budget cuts affected academic institutions:
• Nalanda University’s budget decreased by 20%.
• South Asian University’s budget decreased by 22%.
• While foreign missions and cultural diplomacy funding grew by 7%, it remains insufficient to support India’s expanding global role.

Need for Declassification and Digitisation of Records

• External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar highlighted that India’s formal diplomatic efforts (Track 1) are far ahead of academic and research-based diplomacy (Track 2).
• To bridge this gap, the MEA should allocate resources to declassify and digitize historical diplomatic records.
• Providing public e-access to these records would:
• Help scholars study India’s foreign policy evolution.
• Challenge misconceptions and better inform policymakers.
• Improve decision-making by learning from past successes and failures.

Conclusion

• The MEA’s budget is critical for India's global engagement, yet current funding is inadequate.
• It is imperative to fortify diplomatic capabilities, increase funding for regional cooperation, and promote research initiatives.
• Strategic changes in aid distribution and an emphasis on infrastructure financing demand improved oversight and resource management.
• Declassifying historical records will enrich foreign policy research and support India’s long-term diplomatic objectives.

Practice Question: India’s Ministry of External Affairs plays a vital role in advancing global partnerships. Discuss the challenges posed by its limited budget and suggest measures to enhance its effectiveness. (250 Words /15 marks)

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4. Substantive equality in child marriage laws

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 9)

Topic: GS2 – Social Justice

Context

• The Allahabad High Court’s ruling in Sanjay Chaudhary v. Guddan (2024) underscores gender disparities in the annulment of child marriages under the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, 2006. This article calls for consistency in marriage legislation.

Annulment of Child Marriage under PCMA, 2006

• In Sanjay Chaudhary v. Guddan (2024), the Allahabad High Court annulled a marriage where the couple married at ages 12 and nine.
• The male petitioner initially requested a divorce when he was 20 years, 10 months, and 28 days old but later revised his request for annulment under Section 3 of the PCMA, 2006.
• This section permits either party in a child marriage to seek annulment within two years of reaching adulthood.

Gender-Based Differences in Age Limits for Annulment

• Under the PCMA, a girl is considered a child if she is below 18 years, while a boy is considered a child if below 21 years.
• The Majority Act, 1875, establishes the age of majority as 18 for both genders.
• This inconsistency raises issues regarding whether males can seek annulment up until 23 years or only until they are 20.

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Differing Judicial Interpretations

• Madras High Court’s View (2011):
• In T. Sivakumar v. The Inspector of Police, the court permitted males to annul marriages until the age of 23.
• This interpretation aimed to protect males married at the age of 20 from potential disadvantages.
• Allahabad High Court’s View (2024):
• The court determined that males over 18 cannot claim ignorance of the law and asserted that both genders should adhere to the same annulment age limit to ensure equality.
• It noted that disparities in marriage age arise from patriarchal views that expect men to be older and financially responsible.

Supreme Court Observations and Limitations

• The Allahabad High Court adhered to the Supreme Court’s observation in Independent Thought v. Union of India (2017), permitting annulment petitions for males up to 23 years.
• However, this observation was not founded on an in-depth analysis of annulment provisions, creating an unfair disadvantage for women and undermining the PCMA’s objective of safeguarding women's rights.

Need for Uniform Age of Marriage

• The existing law grants men an extended timeframe to dissolve child marriages, disproportionately affecting women.
• Standardizing the marriage age at 18 for all genders would align it with other civil rights, such as voting and contractual agreements.

Concerns with Raising the Marriage Age to 21

• Increasing the marriage age may infringe upon rights related to decisional autonomy, privacy, and liberty, particularly for women aged 18 to 21. 
• A 2024 study revealed:
• 49.4% of marriages under PCMA were self-initiated.
• Families often filed complaints, especially in cases of self-initiated marriages.
• Increasing the marriage age could lead to:
• More arrests, family breakdowns, and institutionalization of young people.
• Overburdening the criminal justice system.

Conclusion

• Rather than raising the marriage age, initiatives such as providing access to free education until 18, enhancing healthcare services, and offering comprehensive sexuality education can lead to better maternal health outcomes and greater gender equality. There is a pressing need to reassess time limits for annulments and rectify injustices in women's access to annulment petitions.

Practice Question: Examine the gender-based differences in the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, 2006. Discuss the implications of a uniform age of marriage. (250 Words /15 marks)

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5. Broken promises in a warming world

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations, GS3 – Environment

Context

The U. S. exit from the Paris Agreement under Trump underscores its fluctuating climate commitments, shifting responsibilities to developing nations and hindering global climate initiatives.

Impact of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

• President Trump’s decision to withdraw the U. S. from the Paris Agreement represents a significant setback in the battle against global warming.
• The withdrawal will become effective in one year.
• As the wealthiest nation, the U. S. possesses a third of global wealth and has the highest GDP.
• Historically, it has accounted for over 20% of total carbon dioxide emissions since the pre-industrial period.
• As a participant in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the U. S. was expected to take a leading role in climate action while providing financial and technological support to developing nations.

The U.S.’s Weak Commitment to Climate Action

• The U. S. has consistently failed to meet its global climate obligations, regardless of the ruling party.
• From 1992 to 2005, emissions in the U. S. rose steadily, and the country did not participate in the Kyoto Protocol due to bipartisan congressional opposition.
• Although emissions have decreased since then, the reduction rate remains insufficient.
• The Paris Agreement transitioned from legally binding commitments for developed countries, as seen in the Kyoto Protocol, to voluntary pledges from all nations.
• This change was aimed at accommodating U. S. domestic politics, which opposed binding emission reduction targetsan approach first evident during the 2009.
• Copenhagen climate summit and later formalized in the 2015 Paris Agreement under President Obama.

Biden Administration’s Climate Actions

• Despite attempts at climate action, the U. S. became the world’s largest producer of crude oil during President Biden’s administration.
• The modest $300 billion annual climate finance target at COP29 (Baku) was influenced by resistance from the U. S. and its developed allies.
• Biden’s updated climate goal in December 2024 aimed for a 60% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2035, still allowing the U. S. to maintain an unequal share of the global carbon budget.
• At climate summits in Dubai and Baku, the U. S. pressured developing nations for stricter mitigation targets while making only limited commitments itself.

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Pattern of U.S. Climate Policy

• U. S. climate policy has exhibited a frustrating cycle: weak commitments during Democratic administrations followed by withdrawals under Republican governments.
• This pattern has placed increasing climate burdens on large emerging economies. Developing nations now face financial withdrawals and demands for early decarbonization, exacerbating global inequalities and food insecurity.

Global Reaction to the U.S. Withdrawal

• The prevalent belief, shaped by U. S. influence, is that markets can propel climate action through private sector investments.
• However, over 80% of U. S. energy and 70% of EU energy continues to derive from fossil fuels, indicating the failure of market-driven solutions.
• Developed nations face less accountability for climate commitments compared to developing nations, where public sectors play a more significant role.
• Academics and civil society in developed nations have propagated the misleading notion that local governments and businesses can substitute for national policies.
• A 2024 paper from the University of Colorado Law School indicates that the majority of U. S. states lack effective emissions reduction policies.

Advice for Developing Nations

• Developing countries should not strive to offset the U. S. withdrawal. Other developed nations are likely to provide only rhetorical support rather than meaningful action.
• During Trump's first term, the details for implementing the Paris Agreement were finalized in a way that transferred more responsibility onto the Global South.
• A second Trump administration may continue negotiations but demand increased commitments from developing nations.
• Despite its withdrawal, the U. S. still asserts global climate leadership.

Maintaining Multilateralism and Development Goals

• Developing nations must persist in their participation in global climate discussions, as climate change poses a worldwide challenge.
• India and other Global South countries should align climate action with their developmental needs.
• There should be an increased emphasis on adaptation strategies to lessen climate change impacts.

Conclusion

• Fair and effective climate action necessitates robust political will from all nations. Other countries must urge the U. S. to reengage in meaningful international cooperation on climate change.

PYQ: Discuss global warming and mention its effects on the global climate. Explain the control measures to bring down the level of greenhouse gases which cause global warming, in the light of the Kyoto Protocol, 1997.(150 Words /10 marks) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-3 2022)

Practice Question: Discuss the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on global climate governance. How should developing nations respond to such policy reversals? (150 Words /10 marks)

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6. Bridge the milk divide for a nutritionally secure India

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)

Topic: GS2 – Social Justice – Health

Context

The article discusses disparities in milk consumption in India, underscoring the need for equitable access to milk for vulnerable populations to combat malnutrition and overnutrition.

India’s Milk Revolution and Current Challenges

• India’s White Revolution, spearheaded by Verghese Kurien, established the country as the largest milk producer globally.
• Milk serves as a crucial source of protein and nutrients in predominantly plant-based Indian diets, aiding in the alleviation of stunting and underweight issues among children.
• Nevertheless, milk consumption is markedly uneven across different income groups, regions, and social categories, necessitating urgent attention to close these gaps for improved health outcomes.

Inequities in Milk Consumption

According to the latest Household Consumer Expenditure Surveys (HCES) by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO):

• The wealthiest 10% consume 3-4 times more milk per capita than the poorest 10%.
• The bottom 30% of households account for only 18% of India’s total milk consumption.
• Urban households consume 30% more milk than rural households, despite most milk production occurring in rural areas.
• Scheduled Tribe households consume 4 liters less milk per capita than general category households.
• Milk consumption ranges significantly by state, with regions like Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana averaging 333-421 grams daily, while eastern states such as Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and West Bengal average only 75-171 grams.

Affordability and Overconsumption Issues

• Achieving the recommended daily intake of 300 grams of milk would require 70% of households to allocate 10-30% of their monthly income for this purpose.
• Affluent urban households often exceed this recommended intake by more than double, frequently including unhealthy options like ice cream and sweets, which contributes to overnutrition and obesity.

Focus on Vulnerable Groups

• It is essential to prioritize milk access for children, pregnant women, lactating mothers, and the elderly in low-income communities.
• Enhancements to milk provision through initiatives like POSHAN and Integrated Child Development Services should be prioritized. While states like Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Karnataka already supply milk, the quantities remain inadequate.
• Innovative financing options, such as social bonds, corporate social responsibility funds, and levies on unhealthy foods, should be explored.
• Implementing milk coupon systems in areas with robust dairy networks could bolster access and support local markets.

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Awareness and Healthy Consumption

• Campaigns promoting the nutritional benefits of milk should target women through Anganwadi centres, self-help groups, and civil society organizations, as exemplified by leading states like Maharashtra and Bihar.
• Encouraging moderation in milk consumption among affluent households can help mitigate overnutrition, thereby enhancing affordability for vulnerable groups.
• Learning from the U. K. 's Change4Life Sugar Swaps initiative, which successfully reduced sugar and fat intake, may provide valuable insights.

Conclusion

• Milk is vital for India’s nutrition security. Ensuring equitable access for the vulnerable while curbing overconsumption among the affluent will fulfill Verghese Kurien’s vision of a nutritionally secure India.
• This will make the benefits of the milk revolution accessible to all.

Practice Question: Analyze the factors contributing to inequitable milk consumption in India. Propose policy interventions to bridge the gap and ensure nutritional security for vulnerable populations.” (150 Words /10 marks)

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7. The science is clear, crowd disasters are preventable

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)

Topic: GS3 – Disaster and disaster management

Context

• This week, India experienced a tragic crowd crush at the Maha Kumbh, resulting in 30 fatalities. Such disasters have become increasingly common globally at religious events, concerts, and sports gatherings.

Understanding Crowd Crushes

• Crowd crushes happen when excessive numbers of people occupy a confined area, causing density to exceed safe limits.
• Research indicates that at five individuals per square meter, injuries become probable; at seven per square meter, fatalities can occur.
• In the Maha Kumbh incident, a significant number of attendees behind a barrier led to perilous compression, causing loss of life.

Similar Tragedies WorldwideNovember 2021:

• 10 people died at a music concert in Houston, Texas, U.S.
• October 2022: 159 people lost their lives in a Halloween crowd crush in Itaewon, South Korea.
• April 2023: A charity event in Sanaa, Yemen, led to 90 deaths due to overcrowding.
• December 2024: A religious festival in Nigeria resulted in 35 fatalities.These events highlight the recurring nature of such disasters across the globe.

The Role of Governments and Event Planners

• Many attribute blame to the victims, presuming crowds act uncontrollably, but research negates this assumption.
• Individuals in dense crowds lose the capacity to comprehend the overall scenario, especially when density escalates to hazardous levels, impairing their ability to breathe.
• Only local governments, event organizers, and promoters are positioned to effectively manage crowd density.

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Preventive Measures

Event planners and authorities can take simple and inexpensive steps to prevent crowd crushes:

• Increase entry and exit points to allow smooth movement.
• Stagger arrival times to prevent sudden crowd surges.
• Keep pathways clear of obstacles that create bottlenecks.
• Segment crowds into smaller groups to reduce dangerous clustering.
• Example: In Times Square, New York, authorities create small sections of 100 people to control density during New Year’s Eve celebrations.

The Economic Factor and the Need for Regulations

• In numerous countries, there are no stringent regulations mandating crowd control measures at events.
• Event organizers often have financial incentives to allow high crowd density, maximizing profits from ticket sales, food, and merchandise.
• Governments should establish mandatory safety regulations for large-scale events to safeguard lives.
• Minor adjustments in planning can significantly mitigate risks while enabling attendees to safely enjoy events.
• Failing to act will perpetuate the tragic loss of life in preventable crowd disasters.

Conclusion

• Crowd crushes are avoidable tragedies stemming from inadequate planning and excessive crowd density.
• Both governments and event organizers must accept responsibility and implement basic, cost-effective safety protocols to safeguard lives.
• Enforcing regulations can avert future disasters and ensure public safety at large gatherings.

Practice Question: Crowd crush incidents are preventable yet recurrent across the world. Discuss the key causes and suggest measures to ensure better crowd management at large public gatherings. (150 Words /10 marks)

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8. A note for New Delhi on dealing with ‘Trumperica’

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations – Effect of policies and politics of developed countries on India’s interests

Context

• The executive actions on immigration, trade, and AI by the Trump administration will significantly affect India’s workforce, economy, and diplomatic relations, necessitating strategic adjustments in India’s policies.

Trump’s Executive Actions and Initial Signals

• Donald Trump signed several executive orders (EOs) immediately after assuming office, including the cancellation of Biden-era policies and withdrawal from multilateral agreements.
• The White House characterized these actions as “100s of Executive actions in the first 100 hours to kick off America’s Golden Age. ”
• India received encouraging signals initially, as External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attended Trump's inauguration and engaged with U. S. officials.
• However, the economic and trade policies of the Trump administration may present major challenges for India.

Immigration Crackdown and Its Impact on India

• Trump’s policies emphasize border security, the prevention of illegal migration, and stringent visa screening.
• The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency has intensified raids and arrests, adversely affecting undocumented Indian migrants.
• More than 725,000 Indians are undocumented in the U. S. , and 18,000 are currently detained for deportation. 
• The economic impact of deportations includes:
• Loss of remittances: If deportations increase, India will face economic losses and rising unemployment.
• Trade pressure: Trump may use tariffs to force India to accept deported migrants, as seen with Colombia.
• Tighter visa rules: Restrictions on H-1B visa holders and work permits for spouses will reduce opportunities for Indian professionals.

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Trade Policy and Tariff Weaponization

• Trump’s “America First Trade Policy” is likely to impose greater tariff pressures on trade partners, including India.
• During his first term, Trump rescinded India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status and halted oil imports from Iran and Venezuela.
• India may encounter more challenging trade negotiations as Trump emphasizes U. S. economic interests.
• Additionally, the shifting U. S. -China relations under Trump introduce uncertainty, as his tariff threats to China may be less severe than anticipated.

U.S. Withdrawals from Global Agreements and Their Effect on India

• Trump's withdrawal from organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the OECD Global Tax Deal, along with the rollback of commitments regarding climate change and green energy, could diminish U. S. funding and support for India's energy transition and development projects.transition and development projects.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Its Economic Consequences for India

• Trump’s administration prioritizes AI investments, with a $500 billion Stargate AI Infrastructure project launched.
• AI advancements aim to keep the U.S. ahead in technology and reduce reliance on foreign tech workers.
• AI job replacement risks:
• Tech leaders like Google’s Sundar Pichai say over 25% of new code is AI-generated.
• Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg predicts AI will replace mid-level engineers.
• These changes may reduce demand for Indian tech professionals seeking U.S. jobs.

India’s Response and Future Strategy

• India must reconsider its education and skilling policies to accommodate the needs of affected STEM graduates. New Delhi should account for Trump’s trade, technology, and immigration policies while navigating diplomatic relations with the U. S.
• India’s dependence on the IT-BPM sector, which accounts for 55% of GDP and 40% of exports, necessitates adaptation to global trends in AI and digital industries.

Conclusion

• The policies of the Trump administration regarding immigration, trade, and AI will have a significant influence on India’s economy and workforce. India must proactively modify its diplomatic and economic strategies to effectively navigate these changes.

PYQ: How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics? (150 Words /10 marks) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-2 2022)

Practice Question: Analyze the implications of the Trump administration’s immigration and trade policies on India’s economy and workforce. What measures should India adopt to mitigate these challenges? (250 Words /15 marks)

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9. The Economic Survey sets out challenges to India’s growth

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)

Topic: GS3 – Indian Economy

Context

• India's economic growth is experiencing a slowdown due to weakening investment trends, increasing global uncertainties, and ongoing regulatory challenges.
• The Economic Survey 2024-25 underscores the need for deregulation, economic freedom, and structural reforms to maintain long-term growth.

Introduction

• The Budget session of Parliament commences during a period of economic downturn in India, following four years of consistent post-pandemic recovery.
• Stock markets are declining, the rupee is depreciating more rapidly than anticipated, and crucial drivers of economic growth, including domestic demand and public sector capital expenditure, are losing steam.

Investment Trends Over the Last Five Years

• From 2019-20 to 2023-24, government capital expenditure (capex) has experienced a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16%.
• Household investments have risen by 12%, whereas corporate investments have only increased by 6%, despite significant reductions in corporate tax rates.
• The decline in economic growth drivers is concerning, particularly as private investments remain weak.

Global Economic Uncertainty and its Impact on India

• The new U. S. administration is poised to alter global trade and taxation policies, contributing to economic uncertainty for India.
• The Economic Survey 2024-25 warns that as globalization recedes, India must prioritize domestic factors to drive economic growth and enhance its appeal to foreign investors.

GDP Growth Projections and Concerns

• The Economic Survey forecasts that India's real GDP growth for 2025-26 may range from 6. 3% to 6. 8%, slightly lower than the 6. 4% projection for 2024-25.
• The Survey indicates that to achieve its ambition of becoming a developed nation by 2047, India must sustain an annual growth rate of 8% for at least a decade.
• A "business as usual" strategy could result in economic stagnation, necessitating significant reforms.

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Need for Economic Deregulation and Reform

• Although recent economic reforms have received commendation, the Economic Survey emphasizes that their efficacy is contingent upon the reduction of regulations.
• The government is encouraged to minimize unnecessary regulations and lessen micro-management of businesses.
• Bridging the trust gap between the government and citizens, as well as within the business community, is essential.

Ease of Doing Business and Market Reforms

• The Economic Survey recommends that the government prioritize enhancing the ease of doing business by alleviating market distortions caused by excessive controls.
• The report advocates for a "minimum necessary, maximum feasible" regulatory approach and suggests holding regulators accountable, akin to the compliance expectations imposed on businesses.

Empowering Small Businesses and Economic Freedom

• The Survey highlights the importance of empowering small businesses and ensuring economic freedom, promoting a level playing field for all enterprises.
• It criticizes certain recent government policies, such as import restrictions, production-linked incentives (PLI), and unpredictable taxation measures, which resemble outdated economic policies from the 1970s.

Conclusion – Key Takeaway for the Budget

• The Economic Survey offers clear guidance to the government: minimize unnecessary controls, cultivate trust in businesses, and emphasize long-term economic freedom.
• The government's response to these recommendations will be determined in the forthcoming Budget.

Practice Question: How can deregulation and economic freedom enhance India’s investment climate and long-term growth prospects? Suggest policy measures to balance regulation with economic efficiency. (250 Words /15 marks)

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